By Mark McGillivray (eds.)
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Extra info for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals
United Nations (2000) United Nations Millennium Declaration: Resolution Adopted by the General Assembly, Fifty-fifth Session, Agenda Item 60(b) New York. United Nations (2007) The Millennium Development Goals Report 2007. New York. United Nations Millennium Project (2005) Investing in Development: A Practical Plan for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals. New York: UNDP. Vandemoortele, J. ’. WIDER Angle 2007/1: pp. 6–7, Helsinki: UNU-WIDER. WHO (World Health Organization) (2007) Global TB Database.
Indeed, the rate of reduction in Africa has been insufficient to keep up with population growth, so the number of deaths is continuing to climb. As a result, Africa’s share of under-5 deaths is growing. In the case of infant deaths this trend represents a dramatic reversal. In the 1960s three-quarters of all infant deaths were in Asia, but by 2015 Africa will account for the majority, as it has done for child deaths for some years now. However, as with income poverty reduction, the rate of decline is rarely sufficient to meet the ambitious goal of a two-thirds reduction by 2015.
More seriously still, there are strong grounds for believing there will be a major reversal, possibly related to either global conflict or environmental catastrophe, before the middle of this century. A1) where X is a vector of determinants comprising one or more variables. Hence the prediction of Y when t is at some point in the future (for example, 2015) involves three unknowns: (i) Model specification: which variables to include in X. (ii) Projections of independent variables: the projected value of X at time t.